Values in five years time

Looking at buying a new model Jimny SZ5 and it’s going to cost me over list, the 2018 one l’ve seen is £21,000

Anybody got a prediction as to the residual value of a well looked after Jimny SZ5 after five years?

Just looking at finance options and whether l would be better off hanging on to our Defender.

there are many variables obviously but on the basis of the very strong residuals that a late gen3 is demanding and the rarity of the gen4 I would expect fairly buoyant prices for a while yet. It depends on what we get as a replacement if anything at all?

I often wonder how many Jimny's there are compared to Defenders ? as we don't often see any Jimnys when we go into the wilds of Derbyshire and I'm not just on about Jen 4 .

Tough decision, what spec is your Defender and how much do you think it's worth? Jimny is a more modern polished package than a Def, but if it's a recent model in good condition I'd be tempted to hang onto it.

Depends on your needs as well. If you need a car that's good at towing & humping loads with great off-road performance, then the Def is a better choice. If you're looking for something that has better on-road manners, offers greater comfort as a daily, better reliability and is easier to squeeze down narrow lanes, while also being great off-road, then the Jimny is it.

Edit: just saw your post on another thread:

lightning wrote: 2018 SZ5 manual in green (although Suzuki say it’s yellow) with 6,000 miles.
At £21,000 from a dealer.
I’ve test driven it and it seems fine, better in fact than the silver one we tried last year.
Maybe because it’s done more miles and loosened up a bit, but it felt quite lively where the silver one seemed lacking.
Looks like £20,000 is as low as prices get right now, and l’ve had an offer of £18,500 for the missus’s Defender 90.
Hopefully it will all come together.
Still leaves me with my Defender 110 so l am not completely abandoning Land Rover.
I just need one vehicle that doesn’t require continuous maintenance and money spending.

Seems like a no brainer to me - small reliable Jimny, plus 110 for load lugging and you don't have to find much cash if you can get £18.5k for the 90, I'd go for it.

It's a tough call to predict anything these days, but a dealer "new" one is 24k, a dealer 18 plate is 21k, so it's lost about 1k per year. My normal rule of thumb is 1k per year, so it's appears to be following this. Many factors could change this, and as they say, investments can go down as well as up.
If the dealer's can't sell the pre-registered ones at 24K we will see a drop in these prices, if they do then it will hold the price higher for a little longer before the depreciation sets in.
If you want one get it, all cars are a complete waste of money.

IMHO you should assume its value will lose 30-40% after 5 years no matter what the current scarcity is - a careful review of lease deals will give you a good idea of the trades view of "residuals" - it will obviously depend on mileage and use over that period as well.